Pest Risk Analysis in (Climate)Change: future oriented risk-assessment

Authors

  • Anne Wilstermann Julius Kühn-Institut – Bundesforschungsinstitut für Kulturpflanzen, Institut für nationale und internationale Angelegen­heiten der Pflanzengesundheit, Braunschweig
  • Jens-Georg Unger Julius Kühn-Institut – Bundesforschungsinstitut für Kulturpflanzen, Institut für nationale und internationale Angelegen­heiten der Pflanzengesundheit, Braunschweig

Keywords:

Plant health, climate sensitive species, modeling, risk analyses, climate change

Abstract

Pest risk analyses are the fundament for preventive trade and production regulations against the introduction of pest species or for eradication measures of introduced pests. The climatic conditions of the threatened areas are of central importance for the risk analysis. So far, climatic analyses are predicated on the reference climatology period 1961–1990. Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, Ceratitis capitata and Xanthomonas fragariae document exem­plarily the extensive changes of risks from new and qua­rantine relevant pest species. The inclusion of climate change into pest risk analyses is crucial for the evaluation of long-term risks. These analyses depend on fundamental key data of the biology, distribution and interaction of climatic high-sensitive organisms. Knowledge gaps have to be closed and be complemented by an early selective monitoring to detect introductions and a shift of the invaded area due to climatic changes.

DOI: 10.1399/JfK.2017.02.08, https://doi.org/10.1399/JfK.2017.02.08

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Published

2017-02-01

Issue

Vol. 69 No. 2 (2017): Special issue climate change

Section

Original Article – Short Communication